October 12, 2024 
The odds of winning a 5* Grand Prix are rarely in a horse and rider’s favor.
On the broad stroke of entries alone, there’s a one in 40 win chance for any pair in any given five star.
Factor in skill, experience, and age, plus current physical and mental health status—of both horse and rider—not to mention footing, course design and the weather, and those odds increase or decrease on the win scale. And then get thrown akimbo by the wild card that is dumb luck.
But there is one rather reliable variable for determining if a horse is likely to win a 5* Grand Prix: age. Specifically, the odds go down, and dramatically so, with a horse that is under 10 or over 15.
Simply put, it’s unusual for a 9-year-old horse to win a 1.60m Grand Prix at 5* level. Only a small handful of horses do it each year and most go on to have big careers—think Donatello 141, Killer Queen, and James Kann Cruz.
In 2024, three 9-year-old horses have laid claim to a 5* Grand Prix title, all in the past three months.
Aptly named Impress-K van’t Kattenheye Z did it first, winning the 5* Longines Global Champions Tour (LGCT) Grand Prix of Riesenbeck with Thibeau Spits in July.
Nine-year-old Foxy de la Roque, piloted by Victor Bettendorf, made it two with the 5* LGCT Grand Prix of Rome at the beginning of September. That same month, 9-year-old Zodiak du Buisson Z, ridden by Richard Howley, took the Grand Prix in Coapexpan.
Now you might wonder, okay, but how does that compare to 10-year-old horses? How critical is that year of experience at the 1.60m height?
The stats say very.
In the past 365 days, ten 10-year-old horses have won 5* Grands Prix. Two did it twice—Greya with Kent Farrington and Cepano Baloubet with Richard Vogel.
Add a year more experience to a horse’s record and that number doubles.
Some twenty 11-year-old horses have won to at least one 5* Grand Prix title over that same period. Julien Epaillard’s Dubai Du Cedre has won three while Harry Charles’s Sherlock and Kevin Staut’s Beau de Laubry Z have each collected two.
For 12-year-old horses, the total dips slightly—15 have won a 5* in the past year—and it drops to ten for 13-year olds and nine for 14-year olds over the same period, then down to one to four in horses aged 15 to 18.
All of which is to say it’s unusual for a 9-year-old horse to win at the 5* level. But not unheard of.
Correction: an earlier version of this story incorrectly stated that no 9-year-old horse had won a 5* Grand Prix since 2015.
