April 10, 2026 
On Thursday before the opening round of the 2026 FEI Jumping World Cup™ Final, Pan American Individual bronze medalist Lauren Hough made a bold prediction about the outcome of the day.
Her view? That the importance of a good performance in the First Final Competition cannot be overstated. “In my opinion, if you’re going to try to win this, you’ve got to be in the top seven,” Hough said.
She isn’t alone in her estimation. After an inside turn resulted in rail down coming into the second double, the USA’s Lillie Keenan knew she needed to hit the gas, upping the ante on what had already been a quick and assertive round.
Fortunately, Keenan’s gamble paid off, landing her in the top-four for the second year in a row and still very much in the running for a podium finish, despite a three-second penalty for a pole down.
Steve Guerdat (SUI), on the other hand, matched class winner Kent Farrington (USA) for ease and finesse with Albfuehren’s Iashin Sitte, winding up third on Thursday in his quest to earn a historic fourth World Cup Finals trophy. But despite his extensive experience in this competition, even Guerdat admitted to nerves after the class, given the very high stakes involved.
“I’m relieved,” Guerdat said. “The Table C [speed] is a class you like to have behind you in a championship. There’s a lot to lose in that class and it’s always good to have a good result [in] front of the long days coming.”
Guerdat, on 62.49 seconds, is one of three riders to finish the First Final competition within a second of one another. Farrington and Toulayna took top prize with 62.03 seconds, while Germany’s Daniel Deusser was second with Otello de Guldenboom on 62.21 seconds.
If Hough’s prediction is correct, that means that to have a shot at the 2026 podium—let alone to win—riders would have had to notch a sub-65 second time, including any penalties, in yesterday’s competition.
Four additional riders met that benchmark to land in the top-seven: Lillie Keenan (USA), whose lightening round with Kick On landed her at 63.78 seconds; Finals rookie Jacob Pope (USA), who also came to play with Highway FBH (63.89 seconds); class pathfinder Aaron Vale and Carissimo 35 (64.32 seconds), and Abdel Saïd (BEL) with Quaker Brimbelles (64.43).
And while Hough—a six-time Finals competitor in her own right—certainly has the experience to know, there’s also a historic basis for her theory when one compares the podium finishers in the last, four, post-pandemic FEI World Cup Finals.
Take last year in Basel, Switzerland, where France’s Julien Epaillard—widely considered one of the fastest riders in the world—won the opening speed round with his homebred gelding Donatello d’Auge, then went on to win the Final on Day 4.
It was a similar story for Ben Maher of Great Britain, who finished second in the First Final Competition with Point Break in Basel, and also second overall. Epaillard’s countryman, Kevin Staut, took third after a fifth-place finish in the opening Table C speed round.
One year earlier, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, Henrik von Eckermann (SWE) won the opening round aboard the great King Edward for the second year in a row, then went on to earn the second of his back-to-back championship victories with the gelding.
Peder Fredricson, also of Sweden, took second with Catch Me Not S in 2024 in the opening round and finished third overall. Meanwhile, Epaillard and Dubai du Cedre were fifth in the Table C and second in the 2024 championship.
At the 2023 World Cup Final in Omaha, Nebraska, Harrie Smolders (NED) and Monaco N.O.P. were seventh in the standings on Day 1, and managed to climb into second place overall. American Hunter Holloway and Pepita Con Spita sat in eighth place in Omaha after Day 1, but followed it up with a series of clear rounds that landed them on the podium on the final day of the championship.
In 2022, Martin Fuchs (SUI) won the Table C and the overall title with Chaplin, while Harrie Smolders once again moved up from ninth to second, and Jens Fredricson (SWE) came from seventh to finish third on Day 4.
All that is to say, not only does Hough’s theory track when it comes to winning this championship, but she could be understating things. If the last three years are any indication, to take the trophy, you might actually have to win on Day 1. (You can read between these lines, here, about this year’s potential hopeful, but we’re not saying. Nope, no jinxes here.)
The good news? With four Americans in the top seven, a strong finish for the home team is looking like a strong possibility in 2026!
Watch the action continue on Friday evening when Final II begins at 7 p.m. CDT with Table A Jumping. The top 20 advance to Sunday’s two-round Final III, where the medals will be decided. Catch it all live on FEI TV!
