When Oliver Townend (GBR) rode into the Fair Hill arena on Sunday for the final phase of the MARS Maryland 5 Star the odds were overwhelmingly in his favor.

With a rail in hand and momentum on his side, the world no. 1 and his 9-year-old mount Cooley Rosalent had a 68% win chance by the EquiRatings prediction center and looked poised to make good on it as they neatly navigated Ian Stark’s show jumping course.

The pair were on track to a clear when they caught the front rail at the ‘c’ element of the tricky triple. Five jumps from home, with no faults or time to spare, they took a second rail at the Buckeye vertical immediately after, handing the win to Ireland’s Austin O’Connor.

And it was an emotional one at that for the Irish Olympian.

In the moments immediately after Townend’s round, O’Connor was in the stands hugging his The Salty Syndicate team member, tears in both their eyes, as a choked up Phil Ghazala gave the play by play on the livestream.

Because if the odds were in Townend’s favor, it was the opposite story for O’Connor.

An Irish rider has not won a 5* in eventing in 58 years. The last was in 1965 when Major Eddie Boylan and Durlas Eile took Badminton.

O’Connor himself had just a 4% win chance by EquiRatings predictions when made the trip to Maryland with his Tokyo 2020 mount Colorado Blue.

And their chances didn’t improve much after dressage. The past 15 winners of 5* events in the USA were top five after dressage (EquiRatings). O’Connor was 12th.

Perhaps most telling still, at age 48 O’Connor has never won a five star—and what’s more, didn’t think he ever would, despite having every belief in the five star potential of his horse and coming close at Badminton.

“[Colorado Blue] has been a champion for years. Privately, I was prepared to give him to somebody better because I felt he deserved to win a five star and I didn’t think I could ever win one with him,” confessed O’Connor. “But here we are.”

Here we are indeed.

O’Connor and the 14-year-old British bred gelding’s stellar cross country record put them in striking distance of medal when they added just 1.2 time penalties to their dressage score on Saturday. With nearly a fourth of the field reduced after cross country, the pair climbed from 12th into third on the provisional leaderboard.

On Sunday, they returned on form, delivering the only double clear on the day to put the pressure on the top two. British Olympic veterans William Fox-Pitt added four faults to his score on 9-year-old mare Grafennacht to finish on 35.3 penalties. Townend added eight, bringing his total to 37.1. They finished second and third, respectively.

No one was more surprised than O’Connor.

“It’s the end result of a lifetime’s work, really. But ultimately, it’s all about the horse. He’s unbelievable,” said the Irishman.

“He’s a proper, proper five-star event horse. He always looked a good horse, but I guess a bit like myself, with age he’s just got better. Or lucky. He’s 85% Thoroughbred—he’s all blood, he’s all class, he’s all heart, and he’ll try and try and try to the bitter end.”

Also, a bit like O’Connor.

“People like me, we’re not supposed to win five stars,” he said, “but, hey, stuff happens.”