Look, we’d like to see Nyquist get his proverbial “Preak on” this afternoon at Pimlico and keep this party going another couple of weeks. What can we say? The Triple Crown trail these past few years has spoiled us rotten. In 2012, it was I’ll Have Another who captured the Kentucky Derby and Preakness before ultimately coming up lame the day before the Belmont. Then we all got swept away in the frenzied tide of California Chrome in 2014 which carried us right into American Pharoah‘s historic spring campaign a year ago. Now, we have Nyquist.

The resume this colt has compiled in his short career is unprecedented. He’s won all 8 of his starts, including 7 graded stakes, at 5 different tracks in 4 states. He’s won at 5 furlongs and he’s won at a mile and 1/4. He’s won setting the pace, stalking the pace and closing on the pace. You cannot define this son of Uncle Mo as anything other than a flat out winner. A bona fide superstar. The heavy favorite to take the Preakness and a legitimate Triple Crown contender.

Standing is his way is 1-3/16 miles of mud and 10 rivals looking to play party police.

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The best bet to spring the upset is of course Exaggerator, who so far has dutifully played the role of Alydar to Nyquist’s Affirmed. The Preakness will be the fifth time these two have hooked up on the track. Many are pointing to Exaggerator’s sweeping runner-up finish in the Derby and how he was gaining ground on his tiring rival as they crossed the finish line as a harbinger of upsets to come. That may very well be the case, as Exaggerator appears to be improving every week and should relish Saturday’s racetrack soup. Then again, Nyquist also has the look of a horse on the uptick who will not relinquish his crown unless he’s caught by a blind haymaker.

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The most intriguing newcomers also come from the big box barns of Bob Baffert and Todd Pletcher. Baffert will be seeking his 7th Preakness Stakes win with Collected, who has done little wrong in his 6 career starts, including a dominating win in the Grade III Lexington Stakes in April. It would be utterly foolish to dismiss a Baffert runner on the big stage, but even he admits he’ll need the favorites to falter in order grab a piece of the pie.

Pletcher will saddle Stradivari, a well put together son of Medaglia d’Oro who has won his last two starts by a combined 26 lenths. But this will be his first try at the stakes level and just his fourth career start. Maybe this horse is a freak, but more than likely he’s not quite ready to run with this herd.

If the Derby was a stacked deck of closers, the Preakness appears to be full of longshot speed. Both Collected and Stradivari appear inclined to go to the front. Uncle Lino, one of 4 Uncle Mo’s in the field, figures to gun from the inside, as do fellow longshots Laoban and Abiding Star. Nyquist has done most of his damage stalking the early pace, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see jockey Mario Gutierrez play catch me if you can over the sloppy track, just as Victor Espinoza did with American Pharoah in this race a year ago.

The only other Kentucky Derby contender to make the trip to Baltimore is the richly bred ticking time bomb from Japan, Lani. The grey son of Tapit who garnered plenty of pre-Derby attention for his, shall we say, behavioral issues, ended up running pretty well. He overcame a horrendous trip and finished in the upper half of the field. Still, there’s little reason to think he’ll be mentally focused enough and physically quick enough to hang with the top 2.

Longshots Cherry Wine and Fellowship will most likely trail the field early, but each have shown an improving late turn of foot that could put them on the board if the pace evaporates.

Nice horses, glad they could make it, but Preakness 141 boils down to two: Nyquist and Exaggerator. The tables may very well turn on Saturday evening in Baltimore, but our bet is that we’ll be heading back to Belmont with a previously unfathomable shot at back-to-back Triple Crowns.

 

141st Preakness Stakes

Saturday, May 21

Post time: 6:45 ET

TV: NBC

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