It’s the most wonderful time of the year—every four years, to be precise.
With show jumping poised to start at the Paris Olympic Games on August 1, all eyes are on the Palace of Versailles’s equestrian grounds and the Jumpr stats of the 20 teams.
So which team is likely to scale the heights of the podium and don the sport’s most coveted medals?
For our money, it comes down to team CSIO4* and 5* Nations Cup performances already on the board, and super-star horses.
Here are our picks for the favorites, contenders and underdog teams for Olympic gold.
THE FAVORITES
Team Ireland
On numbers, alone, no team has been more dominant in Nations Cup competition this season than Team Ireland. Having never climbed an Olympic podium in team show jumping, 2024 could be their year—not just to medal, but for gold.
Ireland currently leads the League of Nations standings with 13,840 points, thanks to a win at Longines League of Nations Ocala and a 2nd place at the season opener in Abu Dhabi. They also took home the CSIO4* Nations Cup in Wellington and the CSIO5* Nations Cup of Aachen, and finished 2nd at CSIO5* Rome.
In other words, they’re nothing if not consistent.
And this year’s Olympic squad—comprised of Daniel Coyle and Legacy, Cian O’Connor and Maurice, and Shane Sweetnam and James Kann Cruz—is also fielding a combination of proven, powerhouse horses.
According to Jumpr, Coyle and the 14-year-old Zangersheide mare, Legacy, are one of only three combinations (two more to come!) in the world to win two, 1.60m five-star grands prix this year.
Meanwhile, in 10 rounds together at 1.60m, O’Connor and the 12-year-old Maurice average just 1.1 faults, with a clear round percentage of 60%.
Finally, of all the horses in this year’s Olympic lineup, Sweetnam’s James Kann Cruz stands tall with the likes of King Edward on numbers, alone. At 1.60m, he nearly matches Maurice’s average faults at 1.2, but has jumped more than four times as many rounds at that height (43). James Kann Cruz jumps clear at 63% clip, finishing in the top 10 a whopping 70% of the time.
Team Germany
It’s been 20 years since the always-formidable Germans took a team gold medal at the Olympics. But it’s not hard to make a case for them this summer in Paris, with combinations including Christian Kukuk and Checker 47, Richard Vogel and United Touch S, and Philipp Weishaupt and Zineday.
Germany kicked off their season with a win in the Longines League of Nations Cup of Abu Dhabi, also winning CSIO5* Nations Cups at Rome and La Baule.
And their horses are hard to beat.
At just 10 years old, Weishaupt’s Westphalian gelding Zineday took silver in the 2023 European Championships in Milan, jumping clear in 23 rounds at 1.60m a whopping 70% of the time.
What’s more: the 14-year-old Westphalian gelding Checker 47 is one of only three horses, including Daniel Coyle’s Legacy, to win two, 1.60m five-star grands prix this year. He also netted more than €1.6 million in prize money in 2023 alone.
Last up: Richard Vogel and the United Touch S are one of the most-chatted-about combinations in the world, earning five 1.60 titles in just 15 months, and making three rounds in the Rolex Grand Prix at CHIO Aachen look like a canter down the Champs-Élysées. Could 2024 be their year for gold?
THE CONTENDERS
Team France
As the host country and the 2016 Rio team gold medalists, France will likely be back with a vengeance and plenty of home-team enthusiasm. They also won the Longines League of Nations Cup of Rotterdam this season, and finished 2nd at La Baule.
France will field Simon Delestre and I Amelusina R 51, Julien Epaillard and Dubai Du Cedre and Kevin Staut and Viking d’La Rousserie in Paris.
Among them, Epaillard and the 11-year-old Selle Français mare, Dubai Du Cedre—who won the 2023 LGCT Super Grand Prix in Prague and finished 2nd at FEI World Cup Finals this year—are the pair to watch. In 32 rounds, they jump clear and finish in the top 10 at 1.60m at 53% and 63%, respectively.
Team Sweden
As Olympic gold medalists (2020) and World Champions (2022), no one has run the table more in the last five years than Team Sweden. This year in Paris, three regular members of their star-studded championship squad are returning and, fun fact: the Swedes also won team gold 100 years ago, at the 1924 Paris Games.
Among them are World no. 1 Henrik von Eckermann and King Edward, Rolf-Göran Bengtsson and Zuccero, and Peder Fredricson—this time saddling Catch Me Not S (Malin Baryard-Johnsson with H&M Indiana were also named).
Though their championship-winning horses are four years older than they were in Tokyo—or 18 years old, in the case of Catch Me Not S!—the Swedish took 2nd at the Longines League of Nations Cup of Rotterdam this season, and 3rd in Abu Dhabi.
In addition to ample championship experience and an unmatched record at the top of the sport, the Swedes will also bring the indomitable King Edward—the best horse in a quarter century. And the King is coming to play: not only has he been in fine form in recent outings, he’s been carefully geared toward this Games for more than a year.
Team Switzerland
Team Switzerland last medaled (bronze) at the Beijing Games in 2008. And though they’ve never earned a team gold medal before, anchor rider Steve Guerdat was individual champion in 2012.
This year, the Swiss earned 2nd place at the Longines League of Nations Ocala, but overall, they haven’t been able to match their 2023 division-leading Nations Cup record.
Even still, there’s room for hope, and their veteran startlist is strong, to say the least.
Guerdat and the 11-year-old Selle Français mare, Dynamix De Belheme, are a proven entity, jumping clear at 63% at a 1.60m and taking individual gold at the 2023 European Championships.
Martin Fuchs will saddle the indomitable Leone Jei—the third horse on this list, if you’ve been counting, to win two, 1.60m five-star grands prix this year alone.
Last up, two-time Olympian Pius Schwizer returns to the Games, this time with the 15-year-old Selle Français Vancouver de Lanlore (the stallion jumped in Tokyo in 2020 under France’s Penelope Leprevost). The partners of two years jump clear at 36% at 1.60m.
Team USA
The USA’s Nations Cup performances have been lackluster at best this season; their top results are a 3rd place at the Longines League of Nations in Ocala, and 3rd in the CSIO4* Nations Cup in Wellington.
That said, the experience of their Pan-American-gold-winning lineup can’t be understated, and they’ll bring the same four riders along to Paris this summer.
Despite riding different horses, Kent Farrington (with Greya), McLain Ward (with Ilex), and Laura Kraut (with Baloutinue), have seven Olympic medals among them. Olympic newbie Karl Cook is the traveling reserve with his Pan Ams mount, Caracole de Rogue.
Though they’ve only jumped five rounds together at 1.60m, Ward and Ilex may be America’s wildcard. Not only did they put in a decisive 2nd place performance in the Rolex Grand Prix of CHIO Aachen, they currently jump clear at 50%, finishing in the top 10 60% of the time.
THE UNDERDOGS
Team Great Britain
It’s hard to imagine relegating Tokyo Olympic Champion Ben Maher and the solo Rolex Grand Winner in history, Scott Brash, to the ‘underdogs’ category. But this year, there’s no doubt that the British are on the back foot.
Despite a pair of 3rd-place finishes at the Longines League of Nations Rotterdam and the CSIO5* Nations Cup at CHIO Aachen, they’re facing uncertainty with the recent injury of top FEI U25 rider Harry Charles (named with Romeo 88) at CHIO Aachen. Charles has been cleared to ride and, with Romeo 88, has a 48% clear round average at 1.60m.
Maher, meanwhile, was originally slated to saddle the 10-year-old Swedish warmblood stallion Point Break, but will now instead ride Dallas Vegas Batilly. The 11-year-old mare has a 47% clear round average at 1.60m and limited championship experience. The pair jumped to a sixth place finish at the 2024 Longines FEI Jumping World Cup Final.
In other words, it will be up to Tokyo Olympic veterans Brash and Hello Jefferson to hold down the fort (they currently jump clear at 38% at 1.60m).
Team Belgium
Like the USA, Belgium earned a pair of 3rd places this season, though neither was in Longines League of Nations competition. (They podiumed at CSIO5* Rome in May and CSIO5* La Baule in June).
This year, Belgium will bring back Jérôme Guery and the now-18-year-old Quel Homme de Hus, who won team bronze back in 2020. But the rest of their A-squad are Olympic first-timers.
Among them are Wilm Vermeir and longtime partner, IQ van het Steentje, a 16-year-old Belgian warmblood stallion with whom he’s won two, five-star grands prix (in 2017 and 2022). In 110 rounds at 1.60m, the pair averages 3.5 faults, jumping clear at 32%.
Lastly, when it comes to wildcards, 26-year-old rider Gilles Thomas and the 10-year-old stallion Ermitage Kalone are certainly turning heads. Despite jumping only four rounds together at 1.60m, the 2024 Belgian Champions making it look easy, finishing clear and in the top 5 at 75%.
In other words, while they may not have the proven entities of other teams, don’t count the Belgians out just yet.